A slowdown, not salvation: what new extinction data reveal about the state of life on Earth

For decades, biologists have warned that humanity is precipitating a sixth mass extinction. By some estimates, species are vanishing at up to a thousand times the natural background rate. Yet a new study in Proceedings of the Royal Society B suggests the picture is more complicated. Extinctions, it finds, may have peaked a century ago—and declined since.

Kristen Saban and John Wiens of the University of Arizona examined 912 documented extinctions among plants and animals over the past 500 years. Their analysis, covering nearly two million assessed species, shows that losses rose steeply through the 1800s and early 1900s before slowing. Extinction rates for vertebrates, arthropods, and plants have generally decreased over the past century. The trend runs counter to the popular narrative of an accelerating biodiversity collapse.

The number of extinctions are shown for each century since 1500. From Saban KE and Wiens JJ (2025) Extinctions over time. The number of extinctions are shown for each decade since 1800 (b). For each time period, Saban and Wiens give the number of species that were inferred to have gone extinct in that time period, based primarily on the dates when each species was last seen.

From Saban and Wiens (2025) That finding, however, offers little comfort. The apparent lull in recorded extinctions may reflect where and how humans look, not a reprieve for nature. Most known extinctions occurred on islands, where invasive rats, pigs, and goats devastated native fauna and flora. Today’s drivers—deforestation, pollution, and climate change—are concentrated on continents,...This article was originally published on Mongabay